Andy Groves method for making billion dollar decisions

June 23, 2021

Andy Grove discussed the problem of deciding if Intel should get out of the Memory chip business with Gordon Moore (Of Moores law fame). The memory chip business was becoming more commoditised and harder to compete in. Andy questioned if the board replaced us and hires a new CEO what would they do? It was clear they’d get out of the memory chip business. Andy suggested that instead of waiting for that they go through the revolving door themselves, come back in and get out of the memory chip business.

While I’ve never run a multibillion-dollar company, I have faced challenging decisions. Cognitive distancing or the stoic exercise of “The view from above” where your creating distance from your own way of thinking. Imagining what the Greek gods above would view this from. It’s a skill to practice, getting outside of your head and all the baggage that comes with that and try and view this from a fresh perspective distant from your own.

This approach has been proven to be effective when used in cognitive behavioural therapy to help change behaviours. One of the ways to do this is to pick a person whose perspective you think would be valuable right now and imagine what they would do. What would ‘a New Ceo’ do? What would ‘Steve Jobs’ do? What would ‘Head of Marketing’ do? What would ‘Someone you admire’ do? This can be useful when you’re looking at a problem, try on views from multiple disciplines. Explore the problem from multiple domains, have different people come in and out of that revolving door.

If you’re supportive of an idea, challenge it by imagining someone with a contrarian view’s arguments against it. What are the blind spots in your solution, what obstacles will you face.

Meetings don’t have to be limited to your perspective either, invoke people outside of the rooms as a hypothetical viewpoint. “What do we think Heather would think about this?“.

You also don’t need to rely on real people, they can be alive or dead, real or fictional. How would Marcus Aurelius of handled this situation? How would Oprah connect with this person?

Allow your team to use others views and invite criticism


What’s Next?

  • Imagine someone whose opinion would be valuable’s viewpoints
  • Use someone with contrarian views to challenge your idea
  • Allow your team to use others views and invite criticism

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Written by Simon Coulter , an engineering manager in Dublin. I've spent most of my life in Ireland but was born in Papua New Guinea. I like building things in my spare time. You should follow them on Twitter

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